As President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo marks the midpoint of her tenure that began in 2004 and ends in 2010, how far has her administration gone in fulfilling its commitments?
The Arroyo administration’s 10-point agenda is encapsulated by the slogan “BEAT THE ODDS,” which is also an acronym derived from the 10 items in the government roadmap. As enunciated during her 2004 inaugural address, reiterated in her succeeding state-of-the nation addresses, and expressed in the medium-term development plan, the agenda lays out ambitious goals in the areas of fiscal administration, economic and social services, and governance. So how do the Arroyo government’s accomplishments thus far measure up against these targets?
The much-touted discipline of this government to keep its fiscal house in order merits first mention. The national government posted a fiscal deficit of P64.5 billion in 2006, the narrowest in the last eight years. This achievement was aided to a great extent by the passage of four major fiscal reform measures: the “sin tax” law, the lateral attrition law, the reformed value-added tax law, and the general tax amnesty law. The one major fiscal reform measure prioritized by the Department of Finance that has yet to be passed is the bill rationalizing fiscal incentives.
DOF Secretary Margarito Teves is confident of meeting the P63 billion programmed shortfall by end-2007. On the other hand, the National Economic Development Authority is expecting the fiscal deficit to widen to P100 billion by the end of the year from a shortfall of P41 billion at midyear, given the poor collection of revenue agencies thus far and the need to spend on infrastructure projects. The larger-than-target shortfalls in revenue collection in the first half of 2007 threaten to derail the announced balanced budget goal by 2008.
Education
In the area of social services, particularly in education, the record is not encouraging. The net enrolment ratio at the elementary level has been below the 91.0% target since school year 2004–2005. The ratio actually decreased to 73.5% in SY 2005–2006 from 77.1% in SY 2004–2005.
At the secondary level, the net enrolment ratio rose to 44.5% in SY 2005–2006 from 42.5% the previous schoolyear, but this was still short of the 67.5% target.
Despite the passage of the election modernization law a decade ago, the manual system of counting and canvassing votes was still in place in the elections last May. Although the Commission on Elections had already signed a contract with a supplier of automated counting machines, the Supreme Court nullified the contract in 2004 after it found that the COMELEC had committed grave abuse of discretion due to irregularities and violations of the poll body’s own bidding rules.
In January, President Arroyo enacted an amended poll automation law, but the pilot implementation of the automated system scheduled for this year was postponed due to lack of time and has been reset for the elections in the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao in 2008. Former COMELEC commissioner Christian Monsod believes full automation will be realized only for the 2013 elections.
Since the launch of the system of roll-on/roll-off shipping terminals in 2003, the cost of transporting cargo and passengers all over the country has appreciably gone down. For instance, passenger tickets and cargo rates from Manila to Dapitan, Zamboanga del Norte, have dropped by as much as 43% and 34%, respectively. At least 74 ports out of the country’s more than 2,000 ports have been fitted with RO-RO ramps, while 54 already have passenger terminal buildings. The new system is a clear improvement over the load-on/load-off mode of water transportation and has resulted in increased trade between the different regions.
The current escalation of hostilities in Mindanao between government forces and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front has highlighted the need to restore the stalled peace negotiations with the MILF. Longstanding peace talks with the leaders of the National Democratic Front, the political arm of the Communist Party of the Philippines, also remain suspended. The unabated incidents of extrajudicial killings of left-leaning activists and journalists, as well as the implementation of the Human Security Act—which the NDF, its allied organizations, and other militant groups fear will be used against them by the government—have made it difficult to build a climate of trust that will bring parties back to the negotiating table.
National Reconciliation
The pursuit of ill-gotten wealth cases against the family of the late dictator, President Ferdinand Marcos, has suffered setbacks after the courts ruled against the Presidential Commission on Good Government in several civil cases. Another discouraging development is the non-passage of the proposed law providing compensation for human rights victims of the Marcos regime.
Turning to another former president, the Sandiganbayan is expected to decide on the plunder case against former President Joseph Estrada by September. It remains to be seen whether the verdict will lead to a closure or will stir up unsettled issues and mobilize the forces that spawned the so-called “EDSA 3” upheaval.
Meanwhile, the Magdalo rebel soldiers who participated in the 2003 Oakwood mutiny and the Marine officers involved in the February 2006 standoff at Fort Bonifacio are still undergoing trial proceedings. Recently, however, the Arroyo administration announced that it is studying a plan to offer a sweeping amnesty to both military and communist rebels.
Access to Power and Water
As of April 2007, 95.3% of the country’s barangays have been electrified. By 2008, all of the country’s barangays should have access to electricity supply and services. Beyond this, the government’s Expanded Rural Electrification program is aiming to connect 90% of all households to barangay electricity lines by 2017.
The government has been less successful in its goal of bringing clean water to households mainly due to the rise in the number of households. Access to safe water dropped to 82% of households in 2005 from 83% in 2004, which is a long way off of the target of 96% of households with access to potable water by 2010.
Job Generation
Under her medium-term development plan, President Arroyo pledged to create 6 to 10 million new jobs from 2004 to 2010, an average of 1.0 to 1.7 million jobs a year. The Presidential Management Staff reports that 1.1 million jobs were generated through the government’s microfinance development program from July 2006 to March 2007 alone. According to the National Statistics Office, however, there was an increase of only 2.19 million in the number of employed workers from April 2004 to April 2007.
Meanwhile, even more Filipinos are seeking employment overseas. An average of one million OFWs are deployed abroad each year. According to the Philippine Overseas Employment Administration, three million Filipino workers left the country from 2004 to 2006.
Urban Decongestion
Vice President Noli de Castro spearheaded the resettlement of informal dwellers along the North Luzon Railway, South Luzon Railway, and other places in Manila to Bulacan, Cavite, and Laguna. The Housing and Urban Development Coordinating Council reports that 17,000 families affected by the North Rail and South Rail projects were resettled in 2005, and another 14,513 families in 2006.
Subic-Clark Development
Subic and Clark are being developed as regional services and logistics hubs. Towards this end, the government is prioritizing the completion of key infrastructure projects in the Luzon Urban Beltway super region. One of these is the 93.8-kilometer Subic-Clark-Tarlac Expressway, which is expected to be completed by November 2007. The highway will cut travel time between the two freeport zones from two hours to just 30 minutes.
The terminal expansion project for the Diosdado Macapagal International Airport in Clark is also expected to be finished by September. The DMIA Gateway Project Phase I is scheduled to be completed by December 2010. In Subic, President Arroyo recently inaugurated a new container terminal, the first phase of a project that aims to transform Subic’s seaport facilities into a major container port.
A cursory evaluation of the status of President Arroyo’s ten-point agenda shows her administration has made positive advances towards achieving some of its goals by 2010, especially in the areas of fiscal reform, transportation infrastructure, electrification, and the development of Subic and Clark. However, the government has also failed to make significant progress in other priority areas, such as education, poll automation, the peace negotiations with Muslim and communist insurgents, national reconciliation, access to water, and the generation of 6 to 10 million new jobs by 2010.
The Arroyo government has three years left to tackle its unfinished business. By 30 June 2010, it should be clear whether this administration will have indeed beaten the odds, or whether the odds were just too long.
