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Philippine Business Magazine: Volume 8 No. 5 - News & Updates
9th APEC Leaders Summit
Shanghai Connection

Chinese Premier Jiang Zemin hosts the 9th APEC Leaders’ Summit
More Stories
Arroyo's First Budget
From Oil to Gas
Braving the 9th Round
Signals

Posing in colorful satin jackets behind a huge painting of the Great Wall of China, 20 of the 21 leaders of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) gathered in Shanghai on 21 October. The heads of states reaffirmed the 1994 Bogor declaration goals of free and open trade and investment in the Asia Pacific. The year of reckoning is 2010 for developed economies and 2020 for developing economies.

Host economy China received wide support for its accession to the World Trade Organization which will hold its fourth ministerial conference in Doha, Qatar in November. Recognizing a direct threat to the APEC vision of “free, open, and prosperous economies,” the leaders pledged to cooperate closely against international terrorism so that it does not disrupt economies and markets. Also central in the APEC agenda this year is human capacity building. An e-APEC strategy will narrow the digital divide among APEC member economies.


2002 National Budget
Arroyo’s First Budget

How much of the 2002 budget will components of economic services get (%)?
Agri & Agrarian Reform
3.8
Nat Res & Environment
1.1
Trade & Industry
0.4
Tourism
0.2
Power & Energy
0.2
Water Res Dev’t.
0.9
Comm, Roads & Transport
6.8
Other Eco Services
0.9
Subsidy to LGUs
6.0
How much of the 2002 budget will components of social services get (%)?
Education 16.6
Health 1.9
Social Security 3.9
Housing & Com. Dev’t. 0.3
Land Distribution 0.6
Other Social Services 0.3
Subsidy to LGUs 6.4
Source: DBM

The House majority passed House Bill 2840, the P781 billion 2002 National Budget on second reading on 26 October, the last day of regular session before its November holiday break. Minority representatives questioned the haste in approving the proposed appropriations bill despite the parliamentary tradition of sine die sessions. Congressmen expect several units under the Office of the President to fold up next year.

Meanwhile, the Senate leadership expects to finish the budget measure before yearend. For 2002, the largest share of the budget will go to social services (29.8%), while the rest will be distributed among economic services (20.2%), general public services (17.1%), defense (5.9%), and net lending (0.8%).



With the Malampaya natural gas in Palawan, the Philippines is expected to cut down its dependence on imported fuel by as much as US$700 million a year

Natural Gas Industry Inaugurated
From Oil to Gas

The Philippines joins Southeast Asian natural gas producers Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, and Vietnam with the inauguration of an onshore natural gas plant in Shell’s refinery in Tabangao, Batangas. An underwater pipeline will deliver natural gas to three onshore power plants with a combined capacity of 2,700 MW – the 1,200-MW Ilijan Power Plant of Korea Power Corporation, the 1,000-MW Sta. Rita, and the 500-MW San Lorenzo Power Plants of the First Gas Power Corporation.

The natural gas deposit beneath Malampaya, Palawan is estimated at 2.6 trillion cubic feet that is estimated to last for 20 years. According to Phil Watts, Chairman of Managing Directors of Royal Dutch Shell, the US$4.5 billion investments in the project — the largest investments project in the Philippines since 1989 — will be paid back in eight years. Commercial operation will become full blast by April 2002.

Energy Secretary Vincent Perez expects to securitize some US$500 million out of the estimated US$13 billion in royalties and revenues from the project to bridge the fiscal deficit of the government estimated at P130 billion next year. The Philippines is expected to cut down its dependence on imported fuel by as much as US$700 million a year out of the annual fuel bill of US$3 billion. Government is also expected to save some US$4.5 billion in foreign exchange, US$2 billion in electricity costs, and US$1.1 billion in environmental costs. The natural gas downstream industry further needs investments into land-based pipeline and another power plant.


Signals

Average price of Dubai crude oil benchmark fell by US$0.41 to US$24.12 per barrel in September from US$24.53 per barrel in August. The September 11 terrorist attacks in the United States initially brought Dubai crude prices up to a high of US$26.78 per barrel. The fall in jet fuel demand from a subsequent slump in air travel and fears of a global recession, however, brought down Dubai crude prices to a low of US$21.13 per barrel. OPEC countries have maintained their production levels and kept their price range at US$22 to US$28 per barrel for its crude basket, which fell to US$20.99 per barrel at the end of last month. At the futures market, November Dubai crude oil dipped to US$24.45 per barrel in September from US$24.59 per barrel in August.

For the second time this year, the average foreign exchange rate has appreciated. In September the average foreign exchange rate strengthened to P51.25/US$ in September from P51.99/US$ in August. Last February, the average foreign exchange rate also improved to P48.29/US$ from P50.97/US$. In the first nine months, however, the exchange rate already depreciated by 19.3% to P50.71/US$ from P42.51/US$ in the same period last year.

Government revenues rose by 6.9% to P365.6 billion in January to August from P341.8 billion in the same period last year. Of this amount, around 70% came from collections by the Bureau of Internal Revenue. BIR performance improved because of reforms adopted such as the use of electronic documentary stamp tax metering system, intensified audit of delinquent taxpayer records, and entering into compromise agreements with taxpayers with pending court cases. Revenues from BIR rose by 5.5% to P258.2 billion from P244.8 billion last year. The Bureau of Customs likewise collected P63.8 billion, 3.6% more than the P61.5 billion it collected last year.

On the other hand, public expenditures continued to outpace government revenues. Government spending grew by 13% to P465.1 billion from P411.6 billion. Thus, the fiscal shortfall widened by 42.6% to P99.5 billion from P79.9 billion.

Unemployment rate dropped to 10.1% in July from 11.2% in the same period a year ago despite the fact that around 70,000 have been laid off in the first seven months of the year. Likewise, the underemployment rate improved to 15.9% from 18.8% a year ago. Since July last year, agriculture generated 1.1 million new jobs; industry, 271 thousand new jobs; and services, 804 thousand new jobs. The army of employed workforce has grown to 29.3 million out of a total labor force of 32.6 million from 27.2 million last year out of a total workforce of 30.5 million.

The total outstanding debt of the national government as of end-June rose to P2.26 trillion from P2.166 trillion in end-2000. A little over half of the outstanding amount or P1.14 trillion are domestic debts while the remainder or P1.12 trillion are foreign obligations. The domestic debt stock grew from P1.068 trillion since end-2000. The external debt stock of the government declined to US$21.365 billion from US$21.992 billion in end 2000.

World Trade Organzation Talks
Braving the 9th Round

The Department of Trade and Industry, in cooperation with the WTO-AFTA Commission, held a two-day forum with the theme “The Philippines and the WTO: Recent Developments in the Multilateral Trading System” last 30-31 August 2001.
This forum on WTO was one of the country’s multisectoral activities held in preparation for the possible launching of a new round of multilateral trade negotiations at the fourth WTO Ministerial Conference to be held in Doha, Qatar on 9-13 November 2001.

The Doha Conference’s precedent — the 1999 Seattle Ministerial Conference — has failed to launch this new round of talks among WTO’s 140 members. One reason for this was the fact that many members believe that there can be no new round of multilateral trade negotiations unless and until implementation difficulties with respect to the WTO Agreements are addressed first. Moreover, many members argue that the issues included in the agenda should be made clear to all.

If the Doha Conference shall manage to issue a ministerial declaration launching a new set of negotiations, the WTO would then have to finalize the agenda for this new round which shall be the 9th round after its immediate predecessor, the 1994 Uruguay Round.

Ambassador Edsel Custodio, assigned in the Philippine mission in Geneva, believes that in light of the planned launch of a new round, the country has to resolve two important questions, this early; “Is it useful for the Philippines to be in the new round?” and “Are we prepared to be in the new round?” Luis Lorenzo of Lapanday Holdings suggests that before the country goes into this WTO exercise, it has to strengthen its position at the WTO and develop a national and unified stand which should be consistent with national interest.

The new round of talks is seen to tackle new issues like competition policy, investments, trade facilitation, transparency in government procurement, electronic commerce, and even the environment and labor standards. At the same time, a number of members would want to re-open existing WTO Agreements as a pre-requisite to the consideration of new issues or to the holding of any new round.

 

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