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Philippine Business Magazine: Volume 11 No. 9 - Updates
 

OPEC's Impact in Asia
Enough Oil

The year 2004 has been a difficult year for oil importing countries such as the Philippines given continuously increasing global oil prices. This was one of the major points delivered by Indonesian Governor for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Acting for the Secretary General Dr. Maizar Rahman before the local business community on 2 December 2004.

Dr. Rahman (left) believes the economic development of Asia is crucial to the long-term growth of the international oil market

Dr. Rahman said a combination of factors were responsible for the sustained increase in crude prices. Despite OPEC's efforts to cool down the overheated market, oil prices remained higher compared to recent years. The oil price increases manifested in escalating inflation rate in the country which reached 7.6% in November from just 4.2% in May.
Nevertheless, Dr. Rahman expects world oil demand to weaken in 2005. Average global Gross Domestic Product growth for 2005 is seen to reach 4.0% compared to 4.9% in 2004.

Dr. Rahman also emphasized that there should be no fears about the world running out of oil, saying that there are plenty of oil around for decades to come. He said that over and above the world's proven oil reserves, there is still plenty of oil that has yet to be discovered in regions whose geological structures suggest a high probability of commercially viable reserves. The world's 1,100 billion barrels of oil reserves is enough to meet demand for around 45 years more at current production rates.

The economic development of Asia is crucial to the long-term growth of the international oil market. Dr. Rahman explained that Asia forms part of the giant 21-member Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation which represents some 60% of the world's economic output and 45% of global trade.

Furthermore, the future extent of OPEC's role in Asia will depend a great deal on ensuring oil price stability and supporting continued growth and equilibrium growth in Asia. Particularly, the Southeast Asian region accounts for about 46% of OPEC's total output. Projections have it that the Southeast Asian region will experience annual average oil demand growth of 3.1% for the period 2002-2025, making it the third biggest growth region in the world after South Asia at 5.5% and China at 4.4%.

Duke of York in Manila
Philippines-British Ties

His Royal Highness, the Duke of York, enumerates Philippine products that are popular in the UK

The Duke of York, United Kingdom's Special Representative for International Trade and Investments, was in Manila in December as part of his Asian tour. He invited the local business community to help foster a positive climate for foreign direct investment to the Philippines especially in facilitating a proper legal and fiscal network vital to risk reduction in business.

His Royal Highness underlined the important role played by Great Britain as the gateway to the European Union, the largest single market in the world. In saying this, he encouraged the business leaders to invest in the United Kingdom and avail of the great benefits they offer such as high levels of innovation and research and development.

Prince Andrew, as he was referred to before his new title, acknowledged the contribution of the Philippines to his country especially through the services of Filipino nurses working for the National Health Service. He also cited various Philippine-made products utilized in UK like electronics, search and rescue vessels, sails, gear boxes for sport vehicles, and even tennis balls used at Wimbledon.

He affirmed UK's continued support to the Philippines through investments in the energy, agri-business, infrastructure, transportation, financial services, and logistics sectors.

Signals

The national governments' fiscal deficit shrunk 9.8% to P180.2 billion in 2004 from P199.9 billion in 2003. The deficit-to-GDP ratio likewise went down to 3.8% from 4.2% a year ago. Government collected P698.4 billion in revenues and spent some P878.6 billion in 2004

Inflation rose for the tenth straight month in December 2004, reaching a high of 7.9%. The December rate was the highest in more than 5 _ on account of higher food, fuel, and electricity prices. Inflation averaged 5.5% in 2004 from 3.0% in 2003

Gross International Reserves dipped to US$15.8 billion in end-November 2004 from US$15.9 billion in end-October 2004

Unemployment rate rose to 10.9% in October 2004 from 10.2% in October 2003. The ranks of the jobless also increased 0.6% to 3.9 million from 3.6 million a year ago. Average unemployment rate for 2004 likewise rose to 11.8% from 11.4% in 2003

Manufacturing volume of production grew 9.0% in October, its fastest pace so far in 2004

Overseas Filipino Worker remittances rose 9.5% to US$6.9 billion in the first ten months of 2004 from US$6.3 billion a year ago. Bangko Sentral attributed rising inflows to higher deployment of workers abroad (particularly higher paid skilled and professional workers), "improved capture of remittances" by banks, and the holiday season. The major sources of remittances were: the United States, Saudi Arabia, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom

Exports grew 8.9% to US$32.6 billion for the period January-October 2004 from US$30.0 billion a year ago. Top dollar earner, electronic products, expanded 9.8% to US$21.9 billion from US$20.0 billion a year ago. On the other hand, imports increased 8.8% in the same period to US$33.9 billion from US$31.1 billion, resulting in the widening of the balance of trade by 6.8% to US$1.3 billion from US$1.2 billion a year ago

Commercial bank lending grew 3.6% in end-October 2004, up from 1.9% in September 2004 and from 0.8% in October 2003. Loans to the manufacturing sector, in particular, expanded 17.9%, compared to 17.8% a month ago and only 1% a year ago

Foreign debt declined to US$55.6 billion in end-September 2004 from US$56.3 billion in end-June 2004 and from US$56.2 billion in end-September 2003

The national government debt swelled 1.4% to P3.63 trillion in end-August 2004, below the P3.68 trillion year-end target


 
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