No doubt, the Philippines could have been in a better position had it been able to control its swelling population. But just how much it could have gained was the subject of a research report released by the Asia-Pacific Policy Center. The research report was presented in a symposium entitled “Tracing the Path from Population Growth to Poverty” in April 2004 by Dennis Mapa, a faculty member of the School of Statistics of UP Diliman and Dr. Arsenio Balisacan, Director of the SEAMEO Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture and a professor in the School of Economics in UP Diliman.
The report, “The Population-Poverty Nexus: The Philippines in Comparative East Asian Context”, produced quantifiable data based on comparative simulation studies on projected increase in the average income per person in the Philippines had it been able to maintain a population growth the same as that of Thailand. According to Mapa, contributor to the report, there is an approximate .76 percent increase in the average income per person in the Philippines if it had been able to sustain a 1.6 percent population growth in a span of 25 years from 1976-2000. On a cumulative note, it amounts to an increase of 22 percent on the average income per person in the year 2000.
Mapa further noted that total population growth has a negative impact on the economic development of a country assuming that its demographic structure consists mainly of youth dependents. The resources allocated for this sector of society could have been potential investments necessary in fueling the growth of the economy. Mapa compared the developments in Thailand, where youth dependents have been decreasing and its worker population slowly increasing in number. This allowed the country to invest more in infrastructure and upgrading of technology.
On the other hand, Dr. Balisacan explained a quantified effect of population growth to the decline in poverty incidence. According to him, if the Philippines followed the population growth pattern of Thailand, it would result to a 5.5 percent points decline in the poverty incidence of the country. Converting it to a simpler formula, it would mean 3.3 million less poor people. This further translates to an estimated savings of P128 billion in the education sector and about P28 billion savings in health expenditures, which according to Dr. Balisacan are conservative estimates based on simulated studies.
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